From targets to transformation: Transition planning as core economic strategy

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, both national and corporate climate commitments are entering a new phase where credibility and delivery define progress. Our new analysis of 1,260 keystone companies reveals that while climate ambition is spreading, target quality, investment alignment and social inclusion remain insufficient to deliver change at the pace needed. Key findings include:

• Supply chain targets remain a critical gap: although about 89% of corporate emissions occur within supply chains, only 16% of companies have set both near- and long-term supply chain emissions targets. Yet, evidence shows that companies with more ambitious and credible targets tend to deliver stronger emissions performance, underscoring that credibility drives real impact.
• The breadth of leading practice indicates there’s an opportunity to triple low carbon investments, without major technological, political, or financing breakthroughs.
• While targets continue to expand, absolute emissions remain off track: 82% of companies have emitted more than their 1.5°C sectoral pathways allow, accumulating a “carbon debt” of around 2.4 Gt CO₂e since 2019. Yet, companies with ambitious, credible emissions-reduction targets are significantly more likely to align with 1.5°C trajectories, confirming that credible targets help drive real-world impact.
• Few companies are translating just transition commitments into action: fewer than 4% have comprehensive plans and only 1.3% set measurable targets to address the social impacts of decarbonisation. This gap between ambition and delivery mirrors government efforts, underscoring the need for a permanent UNFCCC anchor – such as the proposed Belem Action Mechanism to turn just transition from principle into practice.

These findings show that the foundation for credible transition planning is in place, but must now be scaled, deepened, and financed. The next phase is translating ambition into investable pathways that align emissions, capital, and people. COP30 in Belém offers a pivotal opportunity to connect national and corporate transition strategies, advance just transition frameworks and unlock the financial architecture needed for delivery. If ambition, credibility and inclusion progress together, transition planning can evolve from a compliance exercise into a driver of competitiveness, enabling economies that are not only low-carbon but also resilient, fair and future-ready.

Read the report for preliminary findings ahead of the full assessment of the 2,000 most influential companies, coming in January 2026, which will provide a more detailed view of how each company is performing on the low-carbon transition.